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A United Airlines Boeing 737-800 taxis to the gate at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport in September 2019.

Spike in coronavirus cases reveal signs of stalling U.S. air travel recovery

Courtney Miller·July 2, 2020

The first signs of a slowing recovery in air traffic are beginning to show in the United States just as airlines make their largest capacity increases. Even as screened passenger numbers from the Transportation Security Administration continue their upward trajectory, so do new cases of COVID-19 in states not first hit by the virus. With that growing uncertainty, the spread is showing its first indications of a slowing recovery in the months ahead.

U.S. airlines are having a knife fight on a life raft

Courtney Miller·July 9, 2020

In the middle of the single most acute crisis to hit the airline business in the history of flying, U.S. airlines are seemingly trapped playing a cascading series of one upmanship games as they chase market share, risking further destabilizing their airlines at a time when the industry’s very survival hangs in the balance.

Coronavirus nearly severs U.S.-China airlink, but history suggests quick recovery

Courtney Miller·February 10, 2020

The Air Current welcomes Courtney Miller as its new Managing Director of Analysis. Air travel is inherently a vector for...

Airlines survived 2020, but as flyers return their dollars won’t

Courtney Miller·December 29, 2020

As 2020 draws to a close, TAC Analysis reflects on the economic chaos wrought by COVID-19 on capacity, traffic (and most importantly) revenue.

Coronavirus shreds the engine maker business model

Jon Ostrower·July 16, 2020

The first in a two-part series on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the business of building commercial aircraft...

Even our willingness to fly is partisan

Courtney Miller·November 2, 2020

The data shows a strong support of what was long expected to be true: Republican voters are currently more likely to return to the skies than their Democratic counterparts.

The Irkut MC-21-310 with Aviadvigatel PD-14 engines made its first flight on Dec. 14, 2020.

Three Points: Russia’s western aerospace uncoupling, the vaccine airlift, U.S. recovery exceeding forecast

Jon Ostrower·December 20, 2020

MC-21-310 first flight with PD-14 engines accelerates Russia's aerospace industry uncoupling with the west. Pratt & Whitney's involvement is "on life support" as U.S.-Russia relations continue to deteriorate. The first approved COVID-19 vaccine is fanning out across the world, kicking off what is possibly the largest humanitarian airlift in the history of aviation. The global effort requires a highly-coordinated logistical and operational dance. The second big wave of COVID-19 cases is causing an expected decline in air travel, but the overall recovery is ahead of forecast.

Three Points: Pilotless Caravans, a new USAF strategy, COVID era’s top 10 airlines

Jon Ostrower·September 4, 2020

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A Delta Air Lines Airbus A330-300 climbing out from Seattle-Tacoma International Airport in September 2019.

The hard and frustrating math behind airline pilot furloughs and buyouts

Courtney Miller·June 19, 2020

In this TAC Analysis, we focus on these nuanced dynamics of the airline pilot seniority list, and the ways in which the airlines and pilots could work together to weather this unprecedented excess in payroll.

Lost airline revenues tip of the iceberg for domestic testing

Courtney Miller·February 10, 2021

Mandated COVID-19 testing for U.S. domestic travel would cost airlines billions, set recovery back to June levels.

Lessons of DC-10 grounding pave way for 737 Max return

Jon Ostrower·November 18, 2020

To try to make sense of what comes next for Boeing and the 737 Max, and what to avoid, we need to look backward again at McDonnell Douglas and its DC-10.

Three Points: Boeing’s CFO retires, Martian Kitty Hawk, COVID in India

Jon Ostrower·April 20, 2021

Boeing's CFO, Greg Smith, is retiring. He had amassed a slate of responsibilities that had effectively made him as close to being CEO without actually getting the title. Aviation is now multi-planetary. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory's helicopter, Ingenuity, successfully took flight on Mars. A new COVID-19 variant is ravaging India. The country had more cases on Monday than were found in the next 11 countries combined. The air travel link to and inside the planet's second most populous nation is at extreme risk.