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TAC/Forum: The future of piloting

TAC Staff·February 11, 2022

From the acute regional airline pilot shortage to the strategies and technologies laying the foundation for single-pilot and autonomous operations, TAC’s editorial and analytical team hosted a candid 60-minute discussion and Q&A session on the future of aviating and the enablers and limits to growth.

Absent 797, Boeing bets on Wisk’s autonomous moonshot

Elan Head and Jon Ostrower·January 24, 2022

For Wisk and its major backers, it’s all or nothing — and if the startup can win a fully-autonomous certification, it offers Boeing a bridge to adapt those technologies to its next-generation airliners, a goal it has eyed since at least 2017.

The daunting economics of taking an air taxi to work

Elan Head·January 19, 2022

These findings imply that the first wave of eVTOL developers should focus less on pitching their services as a daily commuting solution, and more on a mix of use cases that can support a practical and profitable roll-out. There’s a chicken-and-egg element involved in scaling UAM: driving costs low enough to create the demand that will drive costs down even further. While there are additional hurdles to scale (such as coordinating thousands of low-altitude flights per day in congested urban airspace) economics will be front and center in establishing this new industry’s viability, and the evidence suggests that if you build a system for commuters alone, they won’t come.

Regional aircraft recovery stalls after early pandemic rebound

Courtney Miller·January 6, 2022

Today, the same intuition that initially drove the networks to preserve breadth – the points on route maps – through flying smaller aircraft has shown a recent shift away from the regional aircraft. The recent new trend signals a potential change for the regional aircraft industry, and for the small communities that rely on a connection to the world’s aviation system.

Embraer SPAC deal reflects changed funding landscape for eVTOL developers

Elan Head·January 4, 2022

When Embraer spinoff Eve on Dec. 21 confirmed plans to combine with Zanite Acquisition Corp., it became the sixth company in the urban air mobility space to link up with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). Rather than speak to the continued strength of SPACs, however, the deal illustrates the funding vehicle’s decline as an ample source of outside capital — even as it cements Embraer’s strategy of using partnerships to expand into new markets.

Three Points: Chess with the A220-500, a SpaceJet revival, aviation at 118

Jon Ostrower·December 17, 2021

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The last leg of the U.S. airline recovery is going to be the hardest

Courtney Miller·November 29, 2021

TAC Analysis details its 2022 forecast in two parts, continuing with the obstacles and opportunities facing airlines heading into the new year. The United States traffic doubled in 2021, rebounding as passengers continue to return to the skies, but the remaining recovery will be paced by the airlines’ ability to accept it. Touching 89% of 2019 levels on Thanksgiving weekend, we expect the recovery to stall, ending 2022 still below 100%.

Like it or not, the foundations for single-pilot flying are being laid today

Jon Ostrower·November 21, 2021

A pilot shortage is shaping the debate over single-pilot cockpits, while Airbus CEO grabs aviation’s third rail with both hands.

The journey to green flying is about the diversion, not the destination

Jon Ostrower·November 8, 2021

As it prepares to fly a hybrid-electric demonstrator in 2024, De Havilland Aircraft of Canada says it’s all about designing an aircraft for a bad day.

A very real pilot shortage threatens to upend the U.S. airline recovery

Courtney Miller·October 28, 2021

In this TAC Analysis, we revisit the potential re-arrival of a pilot shortage, and how it may quickly become the limiting factor in the recovery. Crucially, while regional airlines were a welcome source of strength during the COVID pandemic, the lack of pilots in the United States could quickly turn the strongest regional jet market on its head. At play are both the near-term effects of staffing flight decks affecting the world, as well as the long-term challenges unique to the United States -- where pilot supply issues have already exposed an acute operational strain on the system.

A British Airways A380 executes a high-performance takeoff during a flying display at the 2013 Paris Air Show.

Three Points: Reactivating A380s, BizAv’s big picture, flying the B-36 Peacemaker

Jon Ostrower·October 22, 2021

The A380 is back, sort of. Airlines are reactivating the double-deck aircraft ahead of the loosening of COVID-related travel restrictions that promise to breathe life into dormant international routes. Just don't call it a comeback for the superjumbo. By all metrics, business aviation in 2021 is thriving. Back above 2019 levels, the industry is seeing a strong uptick in new development and commercial activity, but examining Honeywell's 10-year forecasts TAC steps back to look at the uncomfortable big picture for the industry's trajectory. What was it like to fly on the Convair B-36? We listen to a first-hand recollection about an aircraft that needed six turboprops and four jet engines just to get off the ground in the early years of the Cold War.

MA700 turboprop resurfaces in China with chatter about a secret first flight

Jon Ostrower·October 8, 2021

Yet, over the past week, chatter across a cadre of Chinese aviation watchers and social media postings suggested that the prototype MA700 had made its maiden flight around Sept. 23 or 24 from the the Aviation Industry Corporation of China’s (Avic) manufacturing plant at Yanliang Air Base in Xian, where China produces many of its military aircraft. The new April 2021 footage was the first public appearance of any MA700 progress since March 2020 when Avic and Xian rolled-out the first static test airframe. Chinese state media had reported in early 2020 that MA700 was slated to fly before the end of that year.