The first half of the year and a big summer airshow are now firmly in the books. While the year started with the pandemic and new war in Europe front of mind for many airlines and manufacturers, the remainder of the year offers a glimpse into what the longer-term future of commercial aircraft demand will look like beyond 2022.
That glimpse suggests much of the same –- constrained narrowbody supply dictated by available deliveries, a fragile supply chain, and available widebody deliveries awaiting signs of stabilized long-haul traffic. Widebody demand remains disproportionately tied to factory freighter aircraft, even as cargo volumes and yields begin to show weakness while global labor shortages push the average passenger seat count higher, leaving regional aircraft demand to stagnate.
Most recently, the 2022 Farnborough International Airshow brought a familiar pre-pandemic surge of orders, built for public consumption and the assignment of “winners,” but provided no significant change in the strategic landscape for the large commercial aircraft manufacturers.
The stage is now set for the second half of the year,and peculiarly similar to the opening act. Red-hot narrowbody demand will compete for limited positions amid airlines hesitant to invest in expensive new widebodies despite the extreme summer need for capacity. Mix in sharply rising interest rates, the expectation of a global recession, the threat of global conflict, and the uncertainty of the back half of 2022 looks disappointingly similar to the front half of the year.
In this latest TAC Analysis, we dive into the airshow orders and how they have (or have not) affected the OEM competitive game board through the back half of 2022. Our analysis considers the position of Airbus, Boeing, and Embraer before and after the show, reflecting on how little impact the much-anticipated airshow had on the industry.
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