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A very real pilot shortage threatens to upend the U.S. airline recovery

Courtney Miller·October 28, 2021

In this TAC Analysis, we revisit the potential re-arrival of a pilot shortage, and how it may quickly become the limiting factor in the recovery. Crucially, while regional airlines were a welcome source of strength during the COVID pandemic, the lack of pilots in the United States could quickly turn the strongest regional jet market on its head. At play are both the near-term effects of staffing flight decks affecting the world, as well as the long-term challenges unique to the United States -- where pilot supply issues have already exposed an acute operational strain on the system.

A British Airways A380 executes a high-performance takeoff during a flying display at the 2013 Paris Air Show.

Three Points: Reactivating A380s, BizAv’s big picture, flying the B-36 Peacemaker

Jon Ostrower·October 22, 2021

The A380 is back, sort of. Airlines are reactivating the double-deck aircraft ahead of the loosening of COVID-related travel restrictions that promise to breathe life into dormant international routes. Just don't call it a comeback for the superjumbo. By all metrics, business aviation in 2021 is thriving. Back above 2019 levels, the industry is seeing a strong uptick in new development and commercial activity, but examining Honeywell's 10-year forecasts TAC steps back to look at the uncomfortable big picture for the industry's trajectory. What was it like to fly on the Convair B-36? We listen to a first-hand recollection about an aircraft that needed six turboprops and four jet engines just to get off the ground in the early years of the Cold War.

MA700 turboprop resurfaces in China with chatter about a secret first flight

Jon Ostrower·October 8, 2021

Yet, over the past week, chatter across a cadre of Chinese aviation watchers and social media postings suggested that the prototype MA700 had made its maiden flight around Sept. 23 or 24 from the the Aviation Industry Corporation of China’s (Avic) manufacturing plant at Yanliang Air Base in Xian, where China produces many of its military aircraft. The new April 2021 footage was the first public appearance of any MA700 progress since March 2020 when Avic and Xian rolled-out the first static test airframe. Chinese state media had reported in early 2020 that MA700 was slated to fly before the end of that year.

Embraer has to design an airplane today for the propulsion of tomorrow

Jon Ostrower·September 3, 2021

With this evaluation for its turboprop concept, Embraer is scratching at an entirely new strategic consideration for a multi-decade aircraft program. While large aircraft design has relied on the same fundamental type of fuel, coupled with successive generations of ever-improving engines, Embraer views its new 90-seater airframe as propulsion agnostic and a halfway step toward hydrogen. Positioning the engines on the rear of the aircraft might not produce the single most optimized design in 2027, but, in Embraer’s view, that deliberate non-optimization allows room for future evolution and growth.

Embraer makes its case for an American turboprop

Jon Ostrower·August 23, 2021

Fundamentally, even with this new shape, Embraer’s tentatively designated TPNG 70 and TPNG 90 (Turboprop Next Generation) haven’t changed in their overall mission. The aircraft is still a 70 to 90-seat turboprop with a range “a little bit more than 800 nautical miles” but optimized for flights between 250 and 300 nautical miles and flown at speeds “faster than an ATR, but not as fast as the Dash 8-400,” said Souza, putting its cruising speed between 300 and 360 knots. Embraer’s goal is a 15% to 20% improvement in cash operating costs for its bigger TPNG 90 compared to the ATR 72-600.

Afghans surround a Kam Air Airbus A340 at Hamid Karzai International Airport. Wakil Kohsar / AFP via Getty Images

Three Points: A reflection on Afghanistan, Embraer’s turboprop rethink, A350’s paint headache

Jon Ostrower·August 17, 2021

Afghanistan is lost. Beyond the crushing enormity of the human tragedy unfolding there, the jarring images from Kabul Airport capture not only the desperation to escape the Taliban, but the very essence of what aviation represents as a path to the future. Embraer heavily revised its turboprop concept and with it the company is shifting its focus from Asia squarely to North America. Qatar Airways has pulled 13 A350s from service on the order of its home regulator, but what's paint issue facing the aircraft?

How a regional aircraft is flown today will define its prospects tomorrow

Courtney Miller·August 4, 2021

There’s no one definition of a regional airline and that shows in the pandemic’s rebound. TAC Analysis continues its exploration of which types of regional airlines are excelling in the pandemic era, which are struggling, and what this means for the various aircraft types operating at each.

Making sense of the post-pandemic role of regional aircraft

Courtney Miller·July 22, 2021

Understanding the nuances of regional aircraft -- turboprops and regional jets -- is first and foremost a matter of understanding the role of geography in their success.

The pandemic didn’t stop Breeze, it gave David Neeleman a new business model

Jon Ostrower·May 10, 2021

Breeze Airways is on the verge of reality. The nascent airline is readying its route structure and going through its proving runs with the Federal Aviation Administration. The plan to find a new U.S. home for Azul’s sunsetting E190s predates COVID-19, but David Neeleman finds himself with inexpensive aircraft and a shifting lessor business model made for crisis.

The global aircraft fleet recovery is a tale of trifurcation

Courtney Miller·April 21, 2021

The global airline fleet is not recovering evenly. With global scheduled capacity up over 92% from April 2020, that metric serves better to illustrate just how terrible last April was than how good we find it in 2021. Compared to 2019, the global fleet is producing 53% fewer seat-miles. We’re a long way from where we were before the pandemic.

Three Points: Boeing’s CFO retires, Martian Kitty Hawk, COVID in India

Jon Ostrower·April 20, 2021

Boeing's CFO, Greg Smith, is retiring. He had amassed a slate of responsibilities that had effectively made him as close to being CEO without actually getting the title. Aviation is now multi-planetary. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory's helicopter, Ingenuity, successfully took flight on Mars. A new COVID-19 variant is ravaging India. The country had more cases on Monday than were found in the next 11 countries combined. The air travel link to and inside the planet's second most populous nation is at extreme risk.

Three Points: Dash 8-400 pause, flying on Mars, miniaturizing the long-haul cabin

Jon Ostrower·February 17, 2021

De Havilland Canada's time building the Dash 8-400 turboprop in Downsview is coming to an end as the company plans to indefinitely pause production, but is leaving the door wide open to start again to begin a new for a post-COVID-19 rebound in demand. The fourth rock from the sun is slated to become the solar system's second planet to host a powered flight. Perseverance and Ingenuity arrive on Mars on February 18. As single-aisle jets like the Airbus A321XLR take on roles once assigned for long-range twins, the more narrow cabin is going to be a battleground for increasingly complex passenger systems in the fight against commodification.