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Southwest Airlines

The last leg of the U.S. airline recovery is going to be the hardest

Courtney Miller·November 29, 2021

TAC Analysis details its 2022 forecast in two parts, continuing with the obstacles and opportunities facing airlines heading into the new year. The United States traffic doubled in 2021, rebounding as passengers continue to return to the skies, but the remaining recovery will be paced by the airlines’ ability to accept it. Touching 89% of 2019 levels on Thanksgiving weekend, we expect the recovery to stall, ending 2022 still below 100%.

If 2021 was about flying again, 2022 is about higher fares & packed flights

Courtney Miller·November 10, 2021

TAC Analysis details its 2022 forecast in two parts, beginning with an examination of how 2021 unfolded. Domestic U.S. load factors returned to 2019 levels during the summer season, filling the available capacity to the brim. As demand continues to return without sufficient capacity to keep pace, fares have already returned to 2019 levels, a trend expected to continue in 2022.

A very real pilot shortage threatens to upend the U.S. airline recovery

Courtney Miller·October 28, 2021

In this TAC Analysis, we revisit the potential re-arrival of a pilot shortage, and how it may quickly become the limiting factor in the recovery. Crucially, while regional airlines were a welcome source of strength during the COVID pandemic, the lack of pilots in the United States could quickly turn the strongest regional jet market on its head. At play are both the near-term effects of staffing flight decks affecting the world, as well as the long-term challenges unique to the United States -- where pilot supply issues have already exposed an acute operational strain on the system.

What happened at Southwest wasn’t a meltdown, it was a burnout

Jon Ostrower·October 13, 2021

The operational disruption at the largest domestic carrier in the U.S. is a warning for the broader mid-pandemic economy, left fragile by the COVID-19 induced collapse of early 2020 and the whiplash-like rebound of some sectors of the economy.

Delta variant hits hard, but aviation has learned how to take a punch

Jon Ostrower·August 25, 2021

As COVID-19 mutates to continue its torment, aviation adapts right along with it.

Three Points: Airbus supplier reintegration, 737 Max grounding grounding, a swift U.S. refleeting

Jon Ostrower·April 27, 2021

Airbus is bringing its biggest aerostructures suppliers home as part of a far-reaching strategy to deeply integrate both its design and supply chain architecture together for future aircraft. A batch of more than 100 recently-delivered Boeing 737 Max aircraft remain grounded following a design change that inadvertently interrupted safe electrical discharge inside areas of the flight deck. And since the start of the pandemic the U.S. has led new aircraft ordering globally by a large margin.

Fresh 737 Max scars spur quick FAA moves on P&W 777s

Jon Ostrower·February 25, 2021

The heavy impact of aviation's most acute contemporary crisis is only just beginning to be felt on regulatory relations.

Southwest hits roadblock with Boeing & GE as it seeks 300 737s or A220s

Jon Ostrower·February 11, 2021

If certain contractual issues, particularly around the CFM engines, can’t be overcome in this pre-campaign period, a head-to-head competition will follow and likely give the edge to Airbus and the A220.

Boeing’s MCAS on the 737 Max may not have been needed at all

Jon Ostrower·January 10, 2021

Three Points: American to lead 737 Max return, Embraer’s hybrid STOUT, Apple and green aviation

Jon Ostrower·November 16, 2020

The FAA is poised to order the Boeing 737 Max ungrounded this week. American Airlines will lead the jet's return after the 20-month grounding. Embraer's conceptual hybrid-electric STOUT for the Brazilian Air Force breaks cover and looks even more interesting than its E3 turboprop study. Apple's path to developing its new ultra-efficient M1 chip is an instructive guide for the strategic future of green aviation.

Three Points: Southwest ready to shop, Airbus thaws & MHI freezes, Comac’s slice of Boeing outlook

Jon Ostrower·October 24, 2020

Boeing floats a new 200 to 250-seater single-aisle, while its most important customer eyes 150 seaters. Airbus tells suppliers to be ready for a 2021 rate increase, while Mitsubishi nears shelving its SpaceJet. Looking closely at Boeing's 20-year outlook, China's first jetliner gets its first real slice of the demand pie.

Three Points: Composite wing R&D, e-taxi trials, United’s longer-legged 787s

Jon Ostrower·September 12, 2020

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