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For the past five years, The Air Current has asked Airbus’s executive Christian Scherer roughly the same question. Is business’s most famous duopoly a stable one? While Airbus and Boeing have had their struggles (some far more acute than others), the duopoly structure of the commercial aviation industry has been overwhelmingly fortified by customers, stakeholders and ultimately their respective shareholders.
Scherer’s answer has been remarkably consistent — until now.
Related: United CEO wants to see an end of the jetliner duopoly
“I would say, fundamentally yes, but a little bit less,” said Scherer, asked again last week by TAC during an interview at the Farnborough International Airshow. “In other words, there are ingredients, I think, that could rock the boat a little more than what I would have said five years ago or six years ago.”
Very few things in aerospace happen overnight, but the sum total of Boeing’s struggles, Comac’s ascent and a future new-airplane decision for Embraer means the duopoly structure is increasingly fragile, said Scherer. “So, it’s a little bit less stable. And I think we’re at the beginning of an era where the next steps will need to crystallize themselves.”
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