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While such deals across the rising eVTOL industry seemingly represent a new aerospace business model in which customers have a stake in the overall success of the product, a detailed review of securities filings and other fine print by The Air Current reveals a far more transactional arrangement. Airlines are lending their branding and credibility in exchange for a possibly lucrative piece of a buzzy market, regardless of whether or not an aircraft will be delivered or even formally ordered.
The most far-reaching sanctions of the modern economic era have disconnected Russia and its civil aviation industry from much of the world. Its digital connection is severed, along with its access to parts, services, international markets and crucial airspace. Yet what will come of the fleet that operates today inside of Russia?
Elan Head and Jon Ostrower·
The industrial giant Textron has the attributes – favorable and unfavorable – of having been around for a long time. It doesn’t have to loudly hype its technological and product viability to excite investors, it doesn’t have to stand up an organization from nothing, and it has a balance sheet and engineering bench that would make any newcomer envious. It also is weighed down by the institutional inertia, silos and competing internal priorities and executive attention spans that come with a sprawling aerospace conglomerate, antithetical to the fast-moving and creative startups.
The western civil & defense aerospace business has long believed that Russia could be its customer, supplier and adversary to its patron governments – all at the same time.
Denial of aviation is a weapon that predates the 21st century battlefield. Yet, with the return of war to Europe, it is also aviation’s Achilles’ heel. With it comes a cascading series of immediate and longer term consequences in the skies as commercial and industrial links are quickly broken after decades of cultivation following the fall of the Soviet Union.
Elan Head and Jon Ostrower·
For Wisk and its major backers, it’s all or nothing — and if the startup can win a fully-autonomous certification, it offers Boeing a bridge to adapt those technologies to its next-generation airliners, a goal it has eyed since at least 2017.
These findings imply that the first wave of eVTOL developers should focus less on pitching their services as a daily commuting solution, and more on a mix of use cases that can support a practical and profitable roll-out. There’s a chicken-and-egg element involved in scaling UAM: driving costs low enough to create the demand that will drive costs down even further. While there are additional hurdles to scale (such as coordinating thousands of low-altitude flights per day in congested urban airspace) economics will be front and center in establishing this new industry’s viability, and the evidence suggests that if you build a system for commuters alone, they won’t come.
