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The Rong Lin Wan, a massive Singaporean-flagged oil tanker, left Mina Al Ahmadi in Kuwait just before sunrise on Feb. 26 filled with jet fuel bound for Europe. When it arrives at its planned destination in Malta sometime around April 11, according to Marine Tracker and Argus Media, it will be the last long-range tanker with jet fuel to have left the Middle East and transited the Strait of Hormuz before the start of the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran.
Before the war, the strategic waterway in the Persian Gulf hosted an estimated 20 million barrels a day of crude oil and other petroleum products. Around 20% of global oil product consumption originated from Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
Related: With Iran strikes, geopolitical chaos again haunts commercial aviation
Much of the refined jet fuel currently being loaded onto aircraft departing from European and Asian airports left the wellhead and was transported out of the region before the war’s commencement. Analytics firm Kpler estimated that the strait’s closure cuts off nearly 21% of total global seaborne jet fuel supply. That slashed European imports by 300,000 barrels per day, more than 80% of which goes to North West Europe, a distinct geography for oil industry distribution.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created an unprecedented and still-growing “air gap” in the global distribution of all petroleum products that has yet to reach their point of use — including jet fuel going into aircraft fuel tanks. Regardless of whether the conflict continues to escalate or a ceasefire deal is reached, the second half of April is set to be the critical period when the impact of the war finally catches up with aviation’s essential energy supply line.
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