The global aviation recovery is the tale of two hemispheres

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The trajectory of global air travel continues to be positive.  In the face of new crises –from Delta to Omicron, the invasion of Ukraine, and the warnings of a perpetually-imminent global recession – the world’s passengers continue to take to the skies in increasing numbers.

Yet despite this disconnect between negative industry sentiment and the passenger who didn’t get the memo, the recovery is materializing in diverse ways. Across the planet, various regions are recovering better than others and the mix of the aircraft types carrying the load is markedly different than in early 2020. The composition of this new fleet is driving a recovery into an industry that looks reminiscent of pre-pandemic times, yet different in key ways.

In the United States, once and again the world’s largest air passenger market, the early recovery has been swift, yet stalled at the predicted 90% levels. Supply chain limitations continue to hold the remaining U.S. recovery back, to include both available aircraft and the crews to fly them. Yet, just north of the border, Canada continues its recovery, significantly delayed due to travel restrictions yet at post-2020 highs of over 63% of 2019 levels.

Related: A slowing global economy is still pushing aviation higher

This variance in the recovery between the two largest trading partners in the world is further playing out in other regions. Europe is not recovering in the same fashion as North America and South Asia’s recovery looks starkly different from its neighboring regions to the east and southeast.

Building on our recent analysis of the overall trajectory of the global recovery, TAC Analysis dives into the regions, exploring how travelers are able to return to flying based on where they live, and what it means for the overall recovery going forward.

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