Airbus grows China forecast as policy shifts to export secondhand jets

Avatar photoJon Ostrower·
Dispatches
·

Log-in here if you’re already a subscriber


Observing a strategic change in Chinese aviation policy, Airbus has significantly increased its expectation of the size of the long-term market for airliners in China. With the June 14 release of its annually updated Global Market Forecast, The Air Current was given an advance look at the Airbus figures which include a 12% increase in the total 20-year size of the China market to 9,440 aircraft, now 23.1% of its global total. It’s a sharp jump from the 8,420 it predicted in last year’s forecast for the period from 2022 to 2041.

The 20-year forecast period to 2042 now more deeply reflects China’s shift from heavy growth and rapid expansion to how the country will behave as a mature market.

Related: A different way to think about the future of flying in China

The China market estimate has been of particular interest since last year’s estimate, which used United Nations population data that saw continued expansion of its populace to 2031, as Airbus acknowledged in an extensive TAC feature on the future of Chinese aviation. However, just days after the publication of the 2022 Airbus forecast, the UN released its heavily revised trajectory showing a declining population in China as early 2022. The Chinese government in July acknowledged population growth had peaked at around 1.46 billion people and was beginning to decline.

Continue Reading
Avatar photo
Jon Ostrower
Jon Ostrower is Editor-in-chief of The Air Current, where he leads coverage of the global aerospace and aviation industries. Prior to launching TAC in June 2018, Mr. Ostrower served as Aviation Editor for CNN Worldwide, guiding the network’s global coverage of the business and operations of aviation. Mr. Ostrower joined CNN in 2016 following four and a half years at the Wall Street Journal. Based first in Chicago and then in Washington, D.C., he covered Boeing, aviation safety, and the business of global aerospace. Before that, Mr. Ostrower was editor of FlightBlogger for Flightglobal and Flight International Magazine covering the development of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner and other new aircraft programs from 2007 to 2012. He is also an instructor at the University of Southern California in the Viterbi School of Engineering's Aviation Safety and Security program. Mr. Ostrower, a Boston native, graduated from The George Washington University’s School of Media and Public Affairs with a bachelor’s degree in Political Communication. He is based in Seattle.
Related

Zeen is a next generation WordPress theme. It’s powerful, beautifully designed and comes with everything you need to engage your visitors and increase conversions.