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This story is part of a two-part series in which The Air Current explores some of the policy implications for aviation and aerospace of each possible outcome in this year’s U.S. Presidential election, focusing on areas where the candidates have signaled meaningful positions on relevant topics. Read the piece on Vice President Kamala Harris here.
If former President Donald Trump is re-elected on Nov. 5, he will be faced with a reality the United States’ chief executive has not had to grapple with in over 130 years: serving non-consecutive terms in the White House. President Grover Cleveland was the last to face that in 1893, leaving the country in 2024 with no modern example of what this kind of second act may look like.
Whereas second-term presidents often rely on the continuity of their records and staff from their first term to solidify political legacies and advance established policy agendas, Trump would be starting again virtually from scratch with a new cabinet, a new set of global economic and political tensions and a different Vice President. Yet, amidst this uncertainty, Trump and his allies still have maintained a relatively predictable view on some of the issues that could most affect aviation as a result of this election: tax policy, tariffs and the state of the national airspace system (NAS).
Based on both his comments and actions during his first term, as well as remarks made on the campaign trail, it’s expected that a second Trump administration would see even more intense tariff action across the board, as well as a potentially revived focus on the privatization of the nation’s air traffic control system. Both items have historically been aligned with the former President’s agenda of reining in foreign influence on the U.S. economy and narrowing the scope of the Federal government.
The implications of both of these policies could be long-lasting and wide-reaching. More sizable tariffs would likely further reduce the near-term resiliency of already battered global aerospace supply chains still struggling to recover from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, a privatization of air traffic control could totally reshape how users interact with the NAS at every level, impacting everything from the state of equipment used by air traffic controllers to access for general aviation pilots.
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