The Air Current

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如果全世界的航空公司都出现飞行员短缺的问题,后果如何?

据波音称,未来20年将需要79万名新飞行员,相当于每天培养108名飞行员,即每14分钟培养一名。这个数字引人注目,比一年前的预测增长了24%。

在本次预测中,波音首次纳入商务航空和直升机飞行员数据,这也是导致2018年需求预测数据激增的原因。在79万名新飞行员中,民用航空飞行员占63.5万人。

自2019年第一季度推出NMA(新中型市场客机)项目以来,波音还从未将飞行员短缺这个因素考虑进新客机项目中。然而,根据《气流》(The Air Current)网站的一项分析,波音每年更新的预测都间接地、但根本性地表明了这些存在于NMA民用案例中的设想,以及对小型双通道喷气机缓解未来新飞行员需求的预期。

波音对七大专业人员需求的预测显示自2011年起均为不断增长的趋势。根据《2011年飞行员和维修技师展望》预测,截至2030年将需要新增46万名民航飞行员。在过去的七年间这一数值上涨了40%。每一次更大的预测数量都伴随着对飞行员潜在短缺的更大担忧——那么今年对未来二十年民航飞行员的需求预测增长了多少呢?

恰恰相反,需求下跌了。

继续阅读...

Jon Ostrower is Editor-in-chief of The Air Current. Prior to launching TAC in June 2018, Ostrower served as Aviation Editor for CNN Worldwide, guiding the network's global coverage of the business and operations of flying. Ostrower joined CNN in 2016 following four and half years at the Wall Street Journal. Based first in Chicago and then in Washington, D.C. he covered Boeing, aviation safety and the business of global aerospace. Before that, Ostrower was editor of the award-winning FlightBlogger for Flightglobal and Flight International Magazine covering the development of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner and other new aircraft programs from 2007 to 2012. Ostrower, a Boston native, graduated from The George Washington University's School of Media and Public Affairs with a bachelor's degree in Political Communication. He is based in Seattle.

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