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The use of drones in the war in Ukraine has undeniably been transformative, upending entrenched assumptions about modern warfare and forcing militaries around the world to re-evaluate their battle plans. However, most of the core innovations have concerned how unmanned aerial vehicles are used, not the invention of radically new technologies.
The DJI Mavic has proven itself as one of the most impactful drones of the war, but this best-selling commercial drone was filming weddings for six years before the full-scale invasion. Its success in Ukraine reflects its creative deployment in large numbers, made possible by its affordability as a mass-produced consumer product.
As militaries, drone makers and investors seek to anticipate the next step change in drone warfare, most of them are betting on artificial intelligence, which holds the promise — and threat — of a true technological revolution in warfare. In these future visions, AI is an enabler for swarms of drones that will communicate instantaneously with each other and other robotic systems while conducting their missions. They will be able to identify and strike targets on their own, with human involvement optional as an ethical nicety. From these capabilities will come new models of warfare that are staggering in their possibilities.
While AI is being used and pursued by a number of Ukrainian defense companies, its deployment in the war thus far has mirrored the deployment of AI more broadly: successful applications in certain narrowly defined use cases, accompanied by significant challenges in delivering on some of its grander promises.
“Everybody’s talking about artificial intelligence. It’s very hard to do. I don’t think it will soon be feasible in a practical manner,” said a senior drone industry engineer who spoke with The Air Current in Kyiv. “Yeah, it’s working, but not good, and that’s the problem. If it didn’t work at all, we’d say, OK, it’s not working, but sometimes it works quite well, and sometimes not.”
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