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Hitting aviation’s net-zero climate targets will require all new airplanes delivered from the mid-2030s to emit no net carbon dioxide during their operational lifetimes, according to a new paper from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT).
Released in advance of the Farnborough International Airshow, when the major plane makers typically announce large orders from airlines, the study underscores how much of aviation’s carbon budget is expected to be consumed by today’s aircraft — both those now flying and slated for delivery through the end of the decade.
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Indeed, just the in-service fleet is expected to emit more than nine gigatons of CO<2, which is more than aviation’s 2.4% share of a total carbon budget that would hold global warming to the Paris Agreement’s aspirational goal of 1.5°C. The ICCT’s projections assume a net-zero aviation carbon budget of 18.4 Gt, calculated as an average of four industry decarbonization roadmaps that aim to achieve net-zero aviation emissions by 2050.
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