What to watch for as NTSB determines D.C. midair crash probable cause

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The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board will meet Tuesday to reveal and vote on the probable cause of the Jan. 29, 2025 fatal midair collision between a U.S. Army Black Hawk helicopter and an American Airlines CRJ700. The Board is also expected to consider a slew of safety recommendations stemming from its probe, but will not release a final report — though that document is expected within two weeks.

The conclusion of the Jan. 27 meeting will formally bring to an end the Board’s investigation into the crash, which investigators had previously said they would strive to do by the one-year anniversary of the tragedy.

Related: Special Report: The night everything at DCA finally went wrong

As that process winds down, of particular interest is how the NTSB ultimately words its probable cause statement for this accident. An investigation by The Air Current in December found that the crash was the result of a systemic failure of the protections designed to keep aviation safe — including fundamental flaws in the design of the airspace, cultural issues within the Federal Aviation Administration and U.S. Army as well as little to no sharing of critical safety data.

Historically, the NTSB’s probable cause determinations have often focused narrowly on the acts that immediately preceded an accident, only mentioning broader underlying issues and institutional failures as contributing factors, a separate aspect of an event’s final report.

However, when the NTSB concluded its investigation into the January 2024 in-flight departure of a Boeing 737 Max 9’s mid-exit door plug last year, it determined that the probable cause was more systemic in nature. Though the board found that four missing bolts were the reason for the incident’s occurrence, it cited both “Boeing Commercial Airplanes’ failure to provide adequate training, guidance, and oversight” and “the Federal Aviation Administration’s ineffective compliance enforcement surveillance and audit planning activities” as the probable cause.

When investigators present findings and recommendations tomorrow, Board members will have opportunities to ask questions before ultimately bringing them to a vote. Given the dismissal of Board Member Alvin Brown last year and the recusal of Member Tom Chapman due to his existing American Airlines benefits arrangement with a previous employer, just three board members will preside over this case.

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